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You don’t have to tell me… March Madness without Arizona, UCLA, UCONN, or UNC feels a little weird… We are gonna miss those teams (mainly UCLA and Zona for obvious reasons)…

But what’s so damn cool about March Madness? Sure, UCLA and Duke and Kansas are the teams who end up winning, but that happens in April… and is as conventional as any other college or pro championship. Sometimes, you get a Mario Chalmers buzzer beater… sometimes, UNC blows Michigan State out of the arena in the first five minutes. That’s title game stuff…

March Madness… what is about to unfold over the next ten days… is a totally separate entity… one with a magic about it that makes it the most compelling annual rite in the sports world.

Writing about sports as I do, I’m supposed to have definitive opinions as to “greatest moments ever”, “greatest comeback of all time”, “greatest game ever played”… all that stuff. The truth of the matter is that if there were only one game or moment worth putting on that pedestal, I… and a whole lot of people… wouldn’t want to write about sports. The debate is 3/4 of the fun, but more importantly: sports doesn’t just give us one shade of “greatest ever X”… Every story in the conversation means something worth giving that label to… something uniquely important. For “March Madness”, many would argue “Laettner over Kentucky” was the greatest moment ever… others would pick “Lorenzo Charles’ Buzzer-Beater Dunk followed by Jimmy V running all over the place after NCST won the title” as the best… or George Mason over UCONN, the most improbable cinderella story that Madness has ever hosted… and they are all right answers…

But the one that I put on my personal “greatest ever” pedestal… the one that I think most perfectly nails the hope, drama, and joy that we all watch March Madness for… Well, some call it “the shot”… some call it “Valpo”… but I think it’s really about family, so I guess I’d say it’s the “Story of The Drews”.

1994: A kid named Bryce Drew is absolutely tearing up high school basketball in Indiana, among toughest proving grounds for HS hoops anywhere (see “Hoosiers” – Indiana is High School basketball). Bryce is named “Indiana Mr. Basketball”, a virtual guarantee that he’s going to go play at IU or another of the nation’s most elite programs; he gets offers from everywhere.

The twist: Drew’s father, Homer, is the head coach of a tiny school called Valparaiso University in the “Mid-Continent Conference” (what is that?)… and his older brother, Scott, is an assistant coach at “Valpo” too. So Bryce, potentially crushing his chances to make the NBA in process, decides to forgo all of the offers to top flight programs and to go play with his family at Valpo.

Drew immediately becomes the greatest player ever to pick up a basketball for the Crusaders, and the team does really well… they make it to the dance his sophomore year and his junior year (in which they lose a heart-breaker to Boston College in an upset bid). As a senior, they again qualify for March Madness but are faced with the untenable reality of being the 13 Seed drawn against 4 Seed Ole Miss, featuring SEC Player of the year Ansu Sesay. Drew keeps Valpo close the entire game, and they are down two with just five seconds left. Drew takes the final shot from beyond the arc.

He misses.

But Valpo manages to foul Sesay on the rebound with time still on the clock… Sesay, a 75% guy from the line, proceeds to miss both free throws, and Ole Miss appears to get the rebound on the 2nd FT, but they lose control and tip it out of bounds. Valpo has no timeouts… but they have the ball under their own basket with 2 seconds left.

The inbound pass is a prayer… thrown 3/4 of the court and nearly intercepted by an Ole Miss defender fronting the Valpo target, but Valpo manages to get the ball and tip the inbound to Drew, who drains the 3 as time expires.

Valpo 70 Ole Miss 69.

Go ahead and watch it unfold below… it’s worth it:

Did Valpo win the national title in 1998? Of course not… they made it through another round before losing in the Sweet Sixteen… but do you have any idea who won the 1998 title? I don’t… all I remember is Bryce Drew making that shot and celebrating with his brother and father – a kid from smalltown USA staying home and picking family over fame… and being rewarded with an unfathomable underdog fairy tale… the perfect March Madness story.

Largely because of that shot, Bryce got drafted in the first round of the NBA draft and got to play a few years in the association, before going back and being an assistant at Valpo for Homer like his brother Scott.

Scott, the Drew lost in the shadows of his father and his brother, would be rewarded too.

I’m not sure if yall remember what was going on with Baylor basketball about half a decade ago, but it was really really ugly. There were players disappearing and dying… and coaches covering it up so that other NCAA violations did not come to light…. it couldn’t have been shadier, and the NCAA rightfully gave Baylor Basketball the harshest sanctions imaginable. The program was left for dead.

Who did Baylor turn to to get the program back on track?

Scott Drew.

At first, things were still really really ugly. The team couldn’t win… couldn’t recruit… who would want to be a part of Baylor Basketball after all of that? Well, if you fast-forward not so far to the present, Baylor isn’t just in the NCAA tournament, but Scott Drew has lead the Bears all the way to being a 3 Seed.

Would Scott have ever gotten this chance if Bryce hadn’t chosen to play at Valpo? or that shot against Ole Miss hadn’t happened? It’s doubtful…

But that’s what March Madness can do… one shot… not the shot that wins the championship… just one shot in a random game… can change the course of the lives of many.

Tell me that’s not worth watching for…

So back in the year 2010, here is the bracket (with my picks included) below:

Is this the statistically most likely turn of events? Of course not… Picking “chalk brackets” and going with the higher seed in every round may not be the statistical best bet either… but is that really the point? Not at all…

When you make your bracket picks, you are really just writing your own script for the tournament (with the caveat that you want it to be feasible so you can look smart and make 100 bucks in your pool). You pick the 13 over the 4… so you can be invested in that 13 Seed and freak out when it comes true… like you yourself are piling on top of Bryce Drew after the game winner.

The guy who wins the bracket pool is almost always the person who picks all of the Final Four correctly anyway, and that is really a crapshoot and made most likely by picking the #1 and #2 seeds to survive… so don’t even sweat that… it’s out of your control. But if you want to get the most out of your bracket, be “that guy” and pick a couple 11s, 12s, and 13s… not just to make it out of round 1 but to make it to the sweet 16. It almost always happens… and when you’re on the bandwagon, it’s way more fun than picking Kansas to win it all and being right could ever be.

So… some general rules to bracket picking:

Don’t pick any 1 seed to lose before the Sweet 16… that’s just dumb. As a result, the 8-9 Game is basically irrelevant (but the 9 historically actually wins more than 50% of the time).

Don’t pick all of the 1 seeds to make the Final 4…. it barely ever happens and you’ll look like a tool.

Pick a 2 seed to go down in round 2… it almost always happens… often to a 10 seed.

Pick a 3 seed to go down in round 2 as well… maybe even two.

If you are bold, pick a 13 over a 4. Why not? How often does a 4 seed make it to the final 4 anyway?

Always pick at least 1 12 over a 5… 2 is even better… the average year sees more than one of these upsets. The same rule applies for the 11s over the 6s.

Try to figure out which segment of the bracket is going to get completely busted and allow a 10, 11, 12, or 13 to make it to the Sweet 16… Two of them do almost every year. The classic routes include: 12 beats 5 and 13 beats 4… they face off in round 2. 10 beats 7… then beats 2 in round 2…. 11 beats 6 in round 1 and then beats 3 in round 2

Pick 1 or 2 of the 1 seeds to lose before the Final 4… the fun part is trying to guess how that is going to go down…

Put a 6 or 7 Seed in the Elite 8. Basically… 6 beats 3 in Rd 2 then 2 in Sweet 16… or 7 Beats 2 in Rd 2 and then 3 in Sweet 16… or the 6 and 7 end up playing each other in the Sweet 16.

Your Final Four participants’ seeds should add up between 5 and 9. Just trust me there…

Within that framework, there are an infinity of possibilities… so do painstaking research and look up RPIs and S-Curves and look at Accuscore projections if that is the angle you like to take (it helps to have done this a little… but it’s not worth obsessing over), or just pick with your gut (surprisingly effective… think Gladwell’s “Blink”). This year, I didn’t mull over stats at all after the bracket was released… I had decided that I’d already watched far too much college hoops… knew the teams pretty well… and just wanted to go for it and see what happens.

But as for this year…

General trends about this year’s field:

The 1 Seeds are good, but Duke, UK, and Syracuse all have potentially rough Round 2 Games…

The 2 Seeds are okay… Villanova has been shaky but is talented enough to win it all… Ohio State has the best player in the country and some veterans… West Virginia is the clear alpha dog of the group… and Kansas State is a little questionable. Only WVU is really safely into the Sweet 16… though I’d bet on Nova will get a mid-major in round 2.

The 3 Seeds are much worse than in the average year. I love Baylor as a story… and as a sleeper… but they aren’t a 3 Seed. Georgetown is the class of the 3 seeds but throws up stinkbombs at random… Pitt is steady, but not that good… New Mexico, though their performances have justified their seeding, are even a weaker team than Baylor. All in all, only really GTOWN amongst the 3s is a veritable threat to make the Final Four, and they are in the hardest bracket.

The 4 and 5 Seeds, as always, are very unpredictable. They all have major flaws. I like Wisconsin the best (more on that later). I don’t much like Vandy (or their matchups). Purdue is missing their best player and has by far the hardest first round matchup of the 4s (Siena is underseeded). Maryland… well, every Maryland game is scary… no matter who you are cheering for. A lot of people are high on Temple (though some think Cornell is going to beat them… Jay Bilas has Cornell in the Elite 8). I’m luke warm on the Owls… I think they are out in Round 2. Michigan State often finds ways to make tournament runs that they shouldn’t… but they have lost in Rd 1 before (though I doubt they will this year). TAMU is a definite sleeper (if they can survive Utah State’s 3 Point barrage)… and Butler… well, I think Butler gets far too much respect for a team from the Horizon League.

The 6 Seed Line is where the money is this year. Tennessee is gravely underseeded (ranked in the top 15 most of the yar) and is incredibly dangerous… but also throws up stinkbombs (and SDSU is a good sleeper); Marquette is always athletic and offensively gifted (but drew not only a major conference foe but a preseason top 15 team in Rd 1); Xavier is always tournament tested and capable of making a run (over Pitt even potentially), but has a lower ceiling than Marq or Tenn… and Notre Dame has a great big man on a mission (Harangody) as well as a bunch of guys who stepped up. They could be dangerous… particularly if they play Villanova in the Sweet 16 (Nova can’t match up inside).

The 7s: BYU, OKST, Clemson, Richmond – just don’t do it for me… so much so that I don’t have much else to say about them. I wouldn’t be blown away if one of them made the Sweet 16, but this is a weak batch of 7 seeds.

As for the 8s and 9s: Kansas is going to cream whoever wins the NIU-UNLV game (which is a great game); Duke should be worried about Louisville in Rd 2; Kentucky should be worried about Texas; and Syracuse should be REALLY REALLY worried about Gonzaga if the Orange are without their big man for the game. The Zags have a lot of size and shoot 3s well – and that’s a handbook on how to beat a 2-3 Zone like Syracuse runs.

FSU, Cal, and Wake are all significantly less dangerous threats to the 1 seeds.

On the 10 line, Missouri generates more turnovers than anybody (they are one of those full-court teams), but they suck otherwise and have tanked of late; Georgia Tech has great bigs and is dangerous in Rd 2 even; Florida has a ton of talent and a great coach, but has yet to “gel” as a team this year… and UF has a way of either making the Final 4 or losing in Rd 1; and St. Marys is a major dark-horse threat. They have tournament experience, play a tough schedule, and have a great big man in Omar Samhan (Villanova doesn’t like teams with great big men). They also slow down the game… so it’s tough to blow them out.

Among the 11s, SDSU MINN Washington and Old Dominion, any could win their round one game (SDSU and MINN particularly). Putting an 11 in the Sweet 16 is a good move this year. The 11-6 Matchups may be the headliners of Round 1.

UTEP is the most dangerous 12 seed… though Utah State is a matchup problem for anybody. I’d stay away from NMSU and Cornell though (sorry Bilas).

Beyond that… Siena, Murray State, and Montana may be the most potent upset threats (though Wofford and Houston wouldn’t shock me… mainly because MD and Wisconsin keep every game close).

And now… the individual matchups:

* Note – Upset % = for that game, Rd % = chance they make it there. If teams are 1 Seed apart, upset % = n/a (this also goes in 2nd round for 4-5 games). “n/a” also applies for upsets that just CANT happen… right? The %s per round don’t add up to 100%, but they leave room for those not explicitly stated to make such occur. Ex. The 4 #1 Seeds’ title chances add up to 90%, so a 10% chance somebody else wins is implicit.

Midwest

1 Kansas Vs 16 Whoever:

Kansas Factors: Senior leaders, elite big man (Aldrich), elite scorer (Collins), elite freshman (Henry), support players, tourney experience, solid coach, peaking at the right time… has to be the favorite.

Upset % – n/a

Final 4 % – KU 75

Title % – KU 50

8 UNLV vs 9 NIU:

UNLV Factors: Well coached, tournament experience, solid play down the stretch to make sure they got into the dance, sneaky good non-conf wins….

NIU Factors: Dominant in the always dangerous MVC, MVC magic, under-the-radar, hard to fault a team that goes 28-4 playing mostly legit teams, good RPI

Upset % – n/a

2nd Rd Upset % – UNLV 1 NIU 1

5 Michigan State vs 12 New Mexico State

MSU Factors: Tanking down the stretch, injured players, Big 10 Strategy advantage, top flight talent, always experienced, perhaps the best “Tournament Coach”

NMSU Factors: Hot team that just won the WAC tourney to get into the dance, not much else redeeming.

Upset % – 15

2nd Rd Upset % – n/a

4 Maryland vs 13 Houston:

Maryland Factors: Great coach, team can either play incredibly hard or as if it has no clue what is going on, one of the 5 best players in the country in Grievis Vasquez who is a senior, good inside presence, playing better down the stretch, poor early season, poor out of conference, great on the road

Houston Factors: Won the Conference USA Tourney to get here, experienced coach, good cinderella story (bringing a legendary program back), very mediocre record, poor on the road

Upset % – 20

2nd Rd Upset % – n/a

Elite 8% – MD 12

6 Tennessee vs 11 San Diego State:

Tennessee Factors: Great coach, missing best players due to “incident”, coach’s son as “energy guy”, senior leadership, underseeding “chip on shoulder”, beat 2 #1 seeds this year, athletic, go on spells of being awful

SDSU Factors: Won the treacherous Mountain West tournament to get “off of the bubble”, peaking at the right time, lack of great wins, decent on the road, great RPI.

Upset % – 35

2nd Rd Upset % – Tenn 35 SDSU 15

Elite 8 % – Tenn 12

3 Georgetown vs 14. Whoever

Georgetown Factors: Played well in Big East tournament, very athletic defensive team, mediocre/overrated coach, throw up a lot of stinkbombs, Great RPI, pretty good on the road, beat Duke, solid players in Monroe/Freeman.

Upset % – n/a

Final 4% – Gtown 7

7 Oklahoma State Vs 10 Georgia Tech:

OKST Factors: Rode Big 12 reputation to the dance, mediocre down the stretch,  solid alpha dog scorer in James Anderson

GTech Factors: NBA Draft prospect big man in Derrick Favors, couple other guys who are NBA talent level, play very sloppily/lazily, seem to be improving as the season goes on, good ACC tournament run.

Upset % – 55

2nd Rd Upset % – OKST 20 Gtech 35

Elite 8 % – OKST 3 GTech 5

2. Ohio State Vs 15. Whoever

OSU Factors: Good Coach (better recruiter), best player in the country in Evan Turner, tons of senior support guys (Lighty, Lauterdale, Diebler, etc), getting better as the season has gone on, better than their record due to Turner injury mid-season, poor RPI for a 2 seed.

Upset % – n/a

Final 4% – OSU 13

West:

1. Syracuse Vs 16. Whoever

Syracuse Factors: One of the best coaches, defensive identity, gimmick defense, know who their guys are, late season mini-swoon, injured big man, alpha dog (Wes Johnson), senior leader (Rautins)… the clear 2nd best team in the field.

Upset % – n/a

Final 4% – Cuse 60

Title % – Cuse 20

8. Gonzaga Vs 9 Florida State

Gonzaga Factors: Underseeded “chip on shoulder”, good big men, senior leader (Bouldin), shoot 3s well, great coach (Mark Few), tough schedule, great on the road, Gonzaga factor…

FSU Factors: A lot of size, played in crappy ACC, low scoring, lack of alpha dog, mediocre on the road, not much out of conference

Upset % – n/a

2nd Rd Upset % – Gonzaga 20 FSU 5

Elite 8% – Gonzaga 9

5. Butler Vs 12. UTEP

Butler Factors: Experienced, winners, long winning streak, great RPI, great on the road, lack of alpha dog, tough schedule, overhyped/overseeded

UTEP Factors: Great on the road, underseeded “chip on the shoulder”, inside outside threats with Caracter-Culpepper, poor out of conference, mediocre RPI

Upset % – 40

2nd Rd Upset % – UTEP 30

4. Vanderbilt Vs 13. Murray State

Vandy Factors: Overseeded, lack of alpha dog, tournament experience, upset in past tournaments, solid Australian center, good out of conference, good on the road

Murray State Factors: Good on the road, tournament experience, good record, large point differential, seemingly dangerous for one of the cinderellas.

Upset % – 25

2nd Rd Upset% – Murray State 30%

6. Xavier Vs 11. Minnesota

Xavier Factors: Solid A10, tournament experience, “lost a lot from last year”, slightly under the radar,  great RPI, alpha dog (Crawford), high scoring, good on the road, capable of losing to crappy teams, good down the stretch, competitive losses out of conference to good teams

Minn Factors: Elite coach, played its way into the tournament, experienced team, Big 10 strategy factor, awful on the road, “happy to be here” factor, mediocre out of conference, balanced attack

Upset % – 50

2nd Rd Upset % – Xav 35 Minn 35

Elite 8% – Xav 15 Minn 15 (total 30%… not bad)

3. Pitt vs 14. Whoever

Pitt Factors: Awesome coach, very steady, playing above expectations/talent level, vaguely overseeded, decent on the road, experience (despite lost players), midseason swoon, okay down the stretch

Final 4 % – 22 (already beat Syracuse once)

7. BYU VS 10. Florida

BYU Factors: Poor inside, good shooting team (shocker), good on the road, got worse as season went on, experienced, alpha dog (Fredette), good RPI

Florida Factors: Great coach, 2 year absence from the dance, “happy to be here” factor, tanked down the stretch, okay on the road, balanced attack, talented.

Upset % – 55

2nd Rd Upset % – BYU 30 UF 35

Elite 8 % – BYU 7 UF 8

2. Kansas State Vs 15. Whoever

KSU Factors: Trendy/Cool Coach, out of nowhere good team, faded a little bit down the stretch, lost 3x to Kansas and 4 times otherwise, not a traditional experienced power, high scoring guards (Pullen, Clemente).

Upset % – n/a

Final 4% – 14

South:

1. Duke Vs 16. Play-in

Duke Factors: No signature win, mediocre on the road, good size, great coach, great defense, 3 guards who complement each other exceptionally (Smith, Scheyer, Singler), vaguely unathletic.

Upset % – n/a

Final 4% – 55

Title % – 10

8. California Vs 9. Louisville

Cal Factors: Mediocre Tournament coach, “maligned” to the point of “having a chip on their shoulder”, terrible out of conference, good in conference, preseason high ranking, more talent than the record/seed, decent on the road.

LVille Factors: Defensive Identity, gimmick defense, great coach, lost a lot of talent from last year, revenge factor from last year, bad on the road, throw up lots of stinkbombs, can rise to occasions, senior leader (Sosa)

Upset % – n/a

2nd Rd Upset % – Cal 4 LVille 25

5. Texas A&M Vs 12. Utah State

TAMU Factors: Sleeper, Big 12 overhype, good coach (Turgeon), program on the rise, alpha dog (Sloan), great RPI, steady all season, athletic.

USU Factors: The Best Shooting Team in the Field, one dimensional, outclassed athletically, didn’t play anybody, winners, experienced, almost not included “chip on shoulder”

Upset % – 25

Elite 8% – TAMU – 25

4. Purdue Vs 13. Siena

Purdue Factors: Experienced, solid coach, tanking down the stretch, best player/leader is out for the season, major “chip on shoulder” factor, road assassins, winners, new alpha dog (Moore), almost “too obviously vulnerable”…

Siena Factors: Experienced, experienced upsetting teams in Rd 1, senior leaders (Rossiter), shoot the ball well, “New Gonzaga” factor, decently difficult schedule, almost “too obvious” of a pick.

Upset % – 35

6. Notre Dame Vs 11. Old Dominion

ND Factors: Great down the stretch, return of senior leader/alphadog/bigman (Harangody), improving support players (Abromitis etc…), bad on the road, bad RPI, quasi-sleeper

ODU Factors: Great RPI, good on the road, beat Georgetown, alpha dog (Lee), on a hot streak, sleeper, good defense/slow games

Upset % – 20 (hard to imagine them dealing with the size)

2nd Rd Upset % – ND 45 ODU 25 (Baylor isnt a tough matchup)

Elite 8 % – ND – 30 (a great pick)

3. Baylor Vs 14. Whoever

Baylor Factors: Karma factor, great coach (Drew), alpha dog/leader (The one and only Lacedarius Dunn), player named “tweety”, hot down the stretch, athletic, shoot well, big man (Udoh), lack of signature wins…

Final 4% – 12

7. Richmond Vs 10. St. Marys

Richmond Factors: Sleeper, good down the stretch, tough A10, way overseeded, alpha dog (Anderson), lack of size, good shooting, good RPI.

St Marys Factors: Experienced, Senior Leader/Big man (Samhan), good point differential, road assassins, good defense, hot down the stretch, shooter (Mickey Mcconnell), good coach… this team screams of good factors.

Upset % – 65

2nd Rd Upset % – Rich 10 SMC 30

Elite 8% – SMC 10

2. Villanova Vs 15. Whoever

Nova Factors: Tanked down the stretch, great coach, athletic, explosive, senior leader (Reynolds), tons of support players (Fisher, Pena, etc etc), shoot well, streaky, play terrible defense, get beaten up inside, Taylor King issues, good on the road.

Final 4% – 30

East:

1. Kentucky Vs 16. Whoever

Kentucky Factors: Elite Talent, resilient, well coached, alpha dog (Wall), support players who are sick (Patterson, Bledsoe, Cousins), good size, athletic, have mental lapses, need crazy comebacks, blow teams out, terrible karma, tough draw…

Upset % – n/a

Final 4% – UK – 50%

Title % – 10%

8. Texas Vs 9. Wake Forest

Tex Factors: Was #1 midseason, have a dominant big man who is too fat/out of shape to play for more than 5 min at a time, elite freshman PG, experienced shooter (James), sneaky mediocre coach, enigmatic, total tank job, talented, high scoring, good out of conference, terrible in conference, mediocre on the road.

Wake Factors: Decent out of conference (mostly A10 wins), tanked drastically down the stretch, terrible postseason record under Gaudio, alpha dog forward (Aminu), poor on the road.

Upset % – n/a

2nd Rd Upset % – Wake 5 Texas 20

5. Temple Vs 12. Cornell

Temple Factors: Solid Coach, winners, great on the road, killer RPI, beat Nova, shoot well, great guard play, vaguely overrated/overhyped, undersized, winners.

Cornell Factors: Drastically overrated/overhyped because they kept it close against Kansas, lost at home to Seton Hall, good size, alpha dog (Wittman), shoot well, winners, no signature wins at all.

Upset % – 25

2nd Rd Upset % – Cor 20

4. Wisconsin Vs 13. Wofford

Wisc Factors: Beat Duke, consistent, experienced, balanced attack, good size, the masters of Big 10 Strategy (limit possessions against more talented teams = give yourself a better chance to win – the Big 10 seems to get this by far and overperforms as a result in the dance), vaguely unathletic, okay on the road, great defense, great coach.

Wof Factors: First birth ever “happy to be here” factor, good on the road, solid record, alpha dog forward (Dahlman), lost by 3 @ Pitt

Upset % – 15

2nd Rd Upset % – Wof 20

Elite 8% – Wisc 25 (Could give UK fits…)

6. Marquette Vs 11. Washington

Marq Factors: Athletic, Shoot 3s Well, streaky, play close games, can rise to the occasion, alpha dog (Hayward), perennial dangerous tourney team (almost always about a 6 seed), sleeper.

Wash Factors: More talented than their record/seed, but not necessarily better, alpha dog (Pondexter), terrible out of conference, poor road record, played way into the tourney, have their own “Isaiah Thomas”, sleeper.

Upset % – 30

2nd Rd Upset % – Marq – 55 Wash 35

Elite 8 % – Marq – 20

3. New Mexico Vs 14. Montana

NM Factors: Great story, great out of conference, great RPI, great passing team, great shooting team, not good inside, not as talented as their seed, good coach, balanced attack, lost to Oral Roberts…

Montana Factors: Came back from 22 to win Big Sky Title Game, have alpha dog Anthony Johnson who put up 40some points in that game…

Upset % – 20

Final 4% – NM 2 (not in the cards…)

7. Clemson Vs 10. Mizzou

Clem Factors: Typical mediocre ACC team in down ACC year, tournament experience, alpha dog (Booker), beat Butler, athletic.

Mizzou Factors: Gimmick Defense, rode coattails of overrated Big 12, played poorly down the stretch, lost a lot of talent from last year, experienced, bad on the road, barely deserve to be in the field.

Upset % – 40 (because they both suck)

2nd Rd Upset % – Clem 10 Mizz 10 (because they both suck)

Elite 8 % – Clem 4 Mizz 3 (because they’d be almost coinflip matchups against New Mexico)

2. WVU Vs 15. Whoever

WVU Factors: Great/dbag coach, scrappy, physical, ugly basketball games that are close, have senior leader/clutch guy (D. Butler), rebound well, don’t blow anybody out of the arena, playing very well down the stretch.

Upset % – n/a

Final 4 % – 30

As is common, I’ll end it on a music video… If you aren’t hyped for the Madness yet… well, I doubt this will help. It’s pretty awful (Like Mike Soundtrack Involved).

And yeah… Join the NickComan.Com Bracket Challenge Here: Winner = 50 Dollar Amazon Card

Word,

Nick