Solid to See Gere Involved..
In between the “this must be a joke” style ads for “Brooklyn’s Finest“, Adam Schefter “Panda-Watch” style NFL free agency coverage, and nonsensical “Bracketology”, ESPN has started to throw baseball a little bit of coverage. The problem (among others) with baseball is that when you are out of shape with your knowledge of the sport, you’re totally screwed. There’s just so much to get: players, prospects, stats… more stats… that baseball is like a test that you are constantly cramming for – the second it is over, you forget it all…
I was at a Yale Alumni party in New Haven on Saturday Night, my first… and it was as awkward as you’d think… but I did manage to run into my buddy Jay who wanted to talk baseball. About 30 seconds into the conversation, I realized I was completely talking out of my ass, and that I should probably figure out what is going on with baseball. Jay, on the other hand, seemed to already know everything that was going on in the league, so much so that I decided he needed to come onto the podcast to help preview the season. I went to Barnes and Noble, picked up all 672 pages of “Baseball Prospectus 2010″, and began cramming again. By the time Jay and I were set to record our podcast on Tuesday, I was good to go. We go through every single division and team, giving our takes… The podcast can be downloaded here: http://nickcoman.com/jaypreview.m4a
As always, you can subscribe to the podcast on Itunes here: http://bit.ly/9xK1Ys
And streamed below:
After my preliminary investigations, here are my projections for the upcoming season…
AL East:
Jeter should have stuck with the flow...
1. The Yankees – High 90s wins
The best offense in baseball is accompanied by a starting rotation featuring a top 5 starter (Sabathia), 2 front end starters (Vasquez and Beckett), 1 trusted veteran (Petite), and a talented young arm (Hughes). I have no clue how Baseball Prospectus has the defending champs third in their division.
*2 The Sox – Low 90s Wins
Solid but question mark ridden rotation, solid but question mark ridden bullpen, solid but question mark ridden lineup… but more solid than question mark ridden.
3. The Rays – High 80s-Low 90s Wins
A thinner rotation without Scott Kazmir, but the bullpen is still great and the bats should be among the league’s leaders… As always, it’s unfortunate that they are stuck in the stacked AL East…
4. Baltimore – Low-Mid 70s Wins
For the firs time in a long time, it seems like there is some rhyme and reason to where this Orioles squad is going… but there’s still not enough pitching or experience on this team to be a winner.
5. Toronto – High 60s-Low 70s Wins
“Rebuiling” may be palatable in the NL Central, but when you get into that mode in the AL East, you lose a lot of games.
AL Central:
1. The White Sox – High 80s Wins
With a talent and experience in the lineup, bullpen, and rotation, you’d have to expect Ozzie’s crew to be the class of this mediocre division. The team does have a lot of guys who are coming off of injuries or are in the “potentially washed up this year” age bracket though…
Mauer's Ex-Girlfriend... Hard to "trade up" from that...
2. Minnesota – Mid-High 80s Wins
Although the Twins’ rotation is far from intimidating, expect those guys to overachieve with run support from one of the most under-the-radar offensive powerhouses you’ll ever see.
3. Detroit – High 70s Wins
They still have a talented lineup and rotation that has always had so much potential, but something is amiss with the Tigers culturally. Jim Leyland can be a great manager, but he and this team didn’t have it down the stretch last year.
4. Kansas City – Low-Mid 70s Wins
With another solid year from Zack Grienke and any sort of development by Alex Gordon, this team really may not finish last… for what that’s worth. Given how mediocre this division traditionally is, KC doesn’t have to suddenly be “that good” to compete, but they still aren’t in that neighborhood.
5. Cleveland – Low 70s Wins
With very shaky starting pitching to go along with some productive veteran pieces, expect the Indians to be in sell mode again befor the deadline this year… The fans won’t care – they’ll be too worried about Lebron.
AL West:
Bringing his MVP trophy and legendary porn collection out west...
1. The Angels – Mid 90s Wins
They lost Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, and John Lackey, but does this roster look like anything but a playoff team? The AL West may be much more competitive this year, but the Mike Scioscia AL-Style-Smallball finds ways to win…
2. Seattle – Low 90s Wins
Lost in the excitement over the King Felix-Cliff Lee 1-2 punch is how good the rotation could be if Bedard comes back healthy and the young promising arms work out… The lineup is pretty good, but isn’t overpowering and could be very productive or unproductive depending on which versions of guys like Jack Wilson and Milton Bradley show up…
3. Texas – High 70s-Low 80s Wins
It’s very easy to get excited with all that is going on in Texas: Nolan Ryan has changed the culture of the team, and the pitching staff over-performed for the first time in decades last season, and the lineup is as always full of young bats, .300 hitters, and 100 RBI guys. It just all seems a little too good to be true… and is Scott Feldman really capable of being a #2 Starter?
4. Oakland – Low 70s Wins
At some point, people have to wonder whether Billy Beane is actually running this team into the ground by exclusively signing prospects, journeymen who hit .240, and guys who were over the hill two years ago… or if that is actually Oakland’s best bet… This roster looks less professional even than usual…
NL East:
Year Twenty For Jones on the Braves...
1. The Braves – Mid 90s Wins
Trusting the likes of Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe was scary 8 years ago… doing so now would be absolutely insane. But… Bobby Cox’s last season… Jurrjens and Hanson posting sub-3 ERAs last year… last gasps for Glaus, Chipper, and Billy Wagner. It could go completely the other direction, but I have a feeling the Braves make moves this year.
*2. The Phillies – High 80s-Low 90s Wins
The defending NL Champs clearly return a stacked lineup and solid pitching staff, but is it really possible for things to go so well for the Phillies for this many years in a row? No injuries? No players not living up to their potential? Say what you want, but the Phillies had a chance to have Halladay and Lee, and they blew it. Curse in the making?
3. The Marlins – High 70s Wins
We have reached the point in the Marlins’ cycle where they need win the WS before their next fire-sale. In fact, given the Marlins’ “6 Year Cycle”, we are already one year past due… They may have many young pieces, but it’s hard to imagine this team won’t have some growing pains… or is complete enough to really compete.
4. The Mets – Low-Mid 70s Wins
Take Johan Santana out of this team and they legitimately have the worst rotation in the majors… so expect this team to be awful 4/5 of the time. While the lineup is overpaid, it should be pungent enough to make this team competitive most of the time… unless everybody gets injured again.
5. Washington – High 60s Wins
Stephen Strasburg is going to be starting the season in the minors, but this is the most “professional” team that the Nats have ever fielded…
NL Central:
1. The Cardinals – Low 90s Wins
While the Cards lack a little in the infield and back end of the rotation, their division is so abysmal that they should walk into the playoffs. They also have the best player in baseball.
Have a clue who this guy is? I guess "some kind of Italian looking baseball guy" is a decent answer...
2. The Reds – High 70s-Low 80s Wins
Having “the 2nd best rotation in the NL Central” is sort of like being “the 2nd classiest girl who works for Emperor’s Club VIP”… but things could be worse in Cinci. They may post their best win total in years given the weakness of their divisional rivals, but is Joey Votto going to spend his entire career on a mediocre-to-awful Reds team?
3. The Cubs – High 70s Wins
While they may not quite be at Mets-level, you have to ask how the Cubs managed to spend this much money to create a pretty-damn-average baseball team. Good but not great offense… Bad but not awful pitching… Either way, we’re gonna get to see the requisite five to ten Lou Piniella straight-out-of-a-bad-baseball-movie-blow-ups.
4. The Brewers – Mid 70s Wins
Milwaukee’s competitiveness window has decidedly closed for the time-being given the offensive downgrades and total lack of pitching. Signing Randy Wolf? Not Bad… but they need to make sure they lock down Prince and “The Hebrew Hammer” for good for the sake of their fans.
5. Pittsburgh – Mid-High 60s Wins
Even if the team is terrible, you gotta think: “Lastings Milledge” is a pretty cool name. He’ll probably get traded this summer, so get the jersey before it becomes a throwback… You’ll seem like that much more legit of a fan.
NL West:
1. San Francisco – Low 90s Wins
The classic Giants formula is back in action: moneyballin’ with more money to spend than they have in Oakland. 36 year old “used to be good and still okay” guys… top flight young pitching… solid bullpen… Maybe Barry Zito will even continue his sneaky “legitimate 3rd starter level” comeback? The Giants are dangerous… if they aren’t too over-the-hill.
Manny should have a reality show...
2. The Dodgers – High 80s-Low 90s Wins
How long til the whole “Joe Torre can’t actually manage” conversation comes back? Much like Philly, LA is stacked in every phase of the game, but would I bet on everything going smoothly for the Dodgers this year? Not with Manny involved… Still, the young bats keep getting better… and Clayton Kershaw Cy Young Potential? The guy can be really dominant…
3. Arizona – Mid-High 80s Wins
Brandon Webb’s injury unfairly killed the D-Backs’ season last year, but the team has pieces: Haren-Webb as a 1-2 is as good as it gets… Edwin Jackson, though he never actually pans out, has a ton of upside; Mark Reynolds had about as random of a 44 HR season as you can have; this looks like a sleeper team to me…
4. The Rockies – High 70s Wins
Last year, we got a nice dose of “Rocktober” after Colorado fired Clint Hurdle, replaced him with Jim Tracy, and subsequently went on a tear for the final 60% of the season. The lineup and bullpen are great, but can the Rockies starters keep their ERAs under 5 again though? and is Huston Street trustworthy? Too many questions in a suddenly loaded NL West…
5. San Diego – Mid-High 60s Wins
There is rebuilding… and then there’s the Padres… How can SD justify trading Adrian Gonzalez for more prospects or to save more money when they already hit rock bottom with the Peavy move…
Playoffs:
Yankees Defeat White Sox -Talent trumps
Red Sox Defeat Angels – Lackey Haunts
Braves Defeat Giants – Like it’s 1993
Cardinals Defeat Phillies – Holliday atones
Yankees Defeat Red Sox - Because it’s due…
Braves Defeat Cardinals – For Mister Cox…
Yankees Defeat Braves – Talent still trumps
Word,
Nick
