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Angle One: The Colts are just better than the Saints…

Get ready for some strung out old dudes... This was The Who... in 1978.

After Week 12’s MNF in which the Saints dominated the same New England team that could have beaten the Colts just a week before, you had to say that the Saints were the best team in football… even if you didn’t really believe it. In between now and then, each team has lost a couple games and made it to the Superbowl, yet it is now clear consensus that the Colts are the better team. At 16-2, they do have the better record than the 15-3 Saints… but why else? Statistically, the teams are nearly identical… or maybe the stats even lean a little to N.O.: 32 points for and 21 allowed for the Saints versus 26 and 19 for the Colts… 132 yds on the ground and 272 through the air for the Saints versus 81 and 282 for the Colts (note the only significant statistical difference: the Saints have been a great running team while the Colts have been a poor one)… 122 yds allowed on the ground and 236 allowed through the air for N.O. versus 127 and 213 for the Colts… The primary reason for the Colts lean is simple – they didn’t lose a single game that they tried to win, while New Orleans had a terrible half against Tampa at home, lost to a good Cowboys team, and didn’t try in it’s last game either. The forgotten detail: how many Colts victories were crazy comebacks, lucky, or ugly… Jacksonville, The Texans… The Niners… 4th and 2… The Texans again… Baltimore… If the Colts had had Clippers level sports karma, they could’ve been 6-8. If there was a second reason for the Colts over Saints sentiment, it probably just has to do with trusting a Colts team that has averaged 12 wins over the past decade versus a Saints team that people know for fans who wore paper bags… it’s hard to really dispute that… but then there is there is reason #3… the casual fan knows one thing: Peyton Manning is the best player in the game.

Angle Two: Manning needs this game for the “greatest ever” stuff… and with the way he’s playing this year, there’s no way he’s going to lose…

What happened to Eli?

The thing about angle two – neither part of the statement is actually 100% true. Manning could lose this game and come back and win the next three superbowls to stake his claim for the greatest ever… or he could never win another Superbowl and possibly still make the same claim… and even with as well as he is playing this year, Manning has not been without flaws… and he is perhaps the publicity benefactor of a team that does everything well but only one thing exceptionally. Still, nearly everyone who followed football this year has said the same thing: “Manning is playing at the highest level that he has ever played at… and that that very well may be the best that anyone has ever played”. Statistically, it’s just hard to make that point: 4500 yards, 33 TDs, 16 Ints, 99.9 Rating… all great numbers… but wouldn’t the best season ever look more like: 5000 yards, 45TDs, 5 Ints, 120.0 rating? This year’s Colts team hasn’t really scored the way historically great offenses do (well < 30ppg), and 16 picks in 14.5 games isn’t mind-blowing either, but one “intangible” attribute has separated Manning from all others: his uncanny ability to find opportunities downfield when his team needs him most… regardless of the defensive scheme. [As an aside, the whole notion of "intangibles" is a crock-o-shit... some things are just harder to describe than others]. The Colts look like an ordinary offense (pass offense included) for extended stretches and even have a tendency to go down double digit margins (see Texans), but it so often seems that Manning is able to “make adjustments” or “flip a switch” and continually find a way to get balls to his receivers in the second half. He does so against soft coverage, zones, man coverage, blitzes, zone blitzes, 4-3s, 3-4s… all of em. Part of it is his receiving core: Clark is the best route-running TE in the league… virtually uncoverable for a lineman, LB, and most safeties… and Wayne/Garcon/Collie is nearly as good of a group as the Harrison/Wayne/Stokely core that was the best set of WRs that Indy has ever had;  A lot of Peyton’s success can be attributed to his mental game… knowing how to counteract defensive schemes and predict how a play will unfold and all that… but mostly, Manning is an unflappable executor of his own will – whatever he sees… he does. In that particular facet of quarterbacking,

This may be my Christmas Card in 2010...

Manning is without a peer in history… and given that that facet of quarterbacking may just be the most important of all… and  that Peyton is pretty damn good in every other way too… calling Peyton the G.O.A.T. really isn’t a stretch at all. He is missing one thing though: Name the most heroic moments of Peyton Manning’s career? Sure, he has a ring, a bunch of MVPs, a ludicrous winning percentage, and some top notch insurance ads, but what was his best game ever? beating Sexy Rexy and the 06 Bears? Pats AFC Title Chokejobs 1 and 2? 4th and 2? Outdueling the Sanchize? Manning could use a game-winning drive in the Superbowl… just to make sure that everyone gets how special of a player he is… and partially to make good on how special of a player he is… he should have done the impossible on the greatest stage… he just hasn’t really had a chance to have done it yet.  Don’t expect him to blow it if he gets one…

Angle Three: People are being really quick to discount the Saints, a team that can score as quickly as any we’ve ever seen…

You win the NFC Title game… and suddenly everyone thinks you’re no good – that’s exactly what happened to New Orleans. You can’t really deny it: the Saints won because of a 12 man on the field penalty, a coin toss, a blown pass interference call, and a shitload of random fumbles… They only stopped the Vikings when the Vikings stopped themselves; and they really did get offensively out of rhythm for long stretches… but what defense would you say the Colts are most similar to of the Saints’ past opponents: large physical Ds like Dallas and Minny or teams more like Arizona, Philly, and New England (new in 09) that rely on speed and turnovers?.. Probably more the latter. Against those teams, the Saints made a mockery of the defenses… putting up WNBA type scores… and Indy gave up 31 to Jacksonville… about to draft Tim Tebow to prevent a move to LA Jacksonville.

We'll throw Bullock in the movie as Pierre Thomas' adopted mother...

Angle Four: The Saints have a huge psychological and emotional advantage…

Not because of the Katrina/Who Dat/New Orleans/America’s Team stuff… all of that is far more for our consumption than for the guys who actually play the game… but because the Saints are being inexplicably discounted by everyone. The Colts are basically a touchdown favorite on a neutral field – a pretty substantial margin. Would you make them 10 point favorites in Indy? That’s the kind of margin you’d give the Colts at home against a team who was in the 8-8 range (so basically Houston every year)… not against a #1 Seed in the Superbowl. Given all this, the Saints have to be coming into the game with that whole “chip on their shoulder” thing… which I think feeds in perfectly to all of that other Katrina/Aints/Underdog/Sports Karma/The Blindside Did So Well-We Need An 09 Saints Movie… stuff. Psychology and emotion only matter in the first quarter of games… but what is the quarter that correlates most with the end result of the game? The First.

Glad Grossman Still Pulls Chicks

Angle Five: Gregg Williams / The Saints defense has no chance against Manning/Indy…

So two common ones I’ve been hearing are “Manning has always lit up Gregg Williams defenses” and “If the Saints try to blitz, they’re totally screwed… Manning is so good against the blitz”. Those just sort of feel like pretty superficial notions. While Brett Favre didn’t get sacked by New Orleans, they beat the crap out of the old man, and definitely disrupted plays and rhythm. Manning pretty much never gets sacked (another reason why he seems even more dominant than he is), but he does throw beat (not Rex Grossman beat) passes when under pressure… and on the great QB personality scale, he’s probably more of a Favre than a Steve Young in terms of “Gunslinging” – an aspect of Peyton’s game that seems to go under the radar. Point being: The Saints have pressured the QB and forced turnovers all year. They have a top-flight ballhawk in Darren Sharper, a legit cover guy in Jabari Greer (as much as was made of Revis Island {which became a running joke of a nickname within 5 days of widespread use… lots of fathers putting kids on Revis Island for timeout} Greer’s numbers were almost as nasty), an exceptionally fast linebacker in Vilma, an especially intelligent linebacker in Fujita (still caucasian… it never gets old), a clearly disruptive line, and one of the most respected coordinators in the game… It’s just hard to believe they won’t do anything right all game…

Angle Six: The Freeney injury actually matters. Expect New Orleans to put up a lot of points…

JVB don't take shit from John Voight...

While we can’t get Eugene Robinson hooker scandals before every Superbowl, the Freeney story was a real lame headliner for media week… the kind that seemed only so big for lack of anything better to talk about (The teams were too well behaved and classy – sucks). We all knew Freeney would “get better” before gameday, and that while it’s possible that he doesn’t play or that he’s ineffective, the best bet would be to just expect 80% Freeney… hopped up on painkillers like John Voight is coaching, but perhaps the most under-reported aspect of the matchup – the Saints can really run the ball. Because the Colts looked pretty good against the run-heavy Jets and Ravens… and because Brees is so clearly the focal point, little has been made of the Saints rushing attack. Unlike the Ravens and Jets (who are legitimately conservative offenses), the Saints rushing game comes as a complement to a historically potent air attack. Football Outsiders, though, rates the Saints’ running attack as the best in the league… while saying that Brees and Co. are only actually the 5th best passing attack in the league. Against the pass, the Colts have been an average defense… The Colts, while average against the pass, are legitimately mediocre against the run… and particularly awful against play action (a Saints specialty)… Also of note: the Saints run particularly well to the right… the place on the field where the Colts D-Line ranks among the 5 worst in the league. Nobody really knows what Freeney is going to do in the game, but the Xs&Os with the Saints on offense definitely favor New Orleans just as much if not more than the Xs&Os favor Indy when they have the ball.

Angle Seven: The Saints Offense is an overrated fluke…

Wonder if Reggie and Ray-J are boys?

While that may be a bold and blanket statement, the Saints offense has been so much greater than the sum of its parts this year that you can’t help but wonder… While the receiving core is clearly overperforming… a bunch of track stars running seam routes with a QB who throws a sick deep ball over the middle… the big mystery is really the O-Line, which has been as good in the run  and in protection as any in the league despite being a bunch of relative no-names (I know… which O-Linemen aren’t no names? The ones drafted highly basically…)… and who expected Reggie Bush to run like a running back? or Pierre Thomas to be a 5+ YPC level talent? and what does he do as a runner that warrants that kind of success? A huge amount of the credit has to go to Sean Payton, who legitimately has found ways to get the most out of his team with all of his wacked-out playcalling… but you can’t help but watch the Saints and expect their offense to turn back into an ugly chick when you wake up hungover.

Angle Eight: Why is everybody forgetting how poor the Colts are on the ground?

Don Brown and Joe Addai have been more effective in the playoffs than they were for the majority of the regular season (in which they were terrible), and the Colts don’t really need to run to win, but what used to be a great play-action team is now just a great passing team… The Superbowl is generally won and lost in the passing game, as such is the phase of the game that the most dominant teams excel in, but in a game that everyone expects to be as high scoring as this one, you want to be able to control the clock a little bit if you manage to get a lead. The Saints likely will be able to move the ball… The Colts expect to play games like they did against Miami this year… let the opponent move the ball up and down the field, but force turnovers and field goals and score efficiently when the offense is on the field. I just wonder if they are asking for trouble if they get behind, and suddenly, they get a dropped pass or broken play or penalty… have a couple three and outs… and are 17 points down… Or what they themselves are going to do in the red-zone against the league’s most efficient Red-Zone Defense (unsung fact) when suddenly there is a whole lot less field to pass to? Well, Manning will probably still throw a touchdown, but I’m just sayin’…

Angle Nine: No matter how many points New Orleans scores, Indy is still going to find a way to outscore them…

Who Comes up with this Stuff? Why an asian?

The Indianapolis pattern of going down early but making halftime and late game adjustments/ executing better in dire straits to comfortably win games seems to have become so much Colts habit that no lead seems to bother them. Down over 2+ scores to the Jets (the suddenly vaunted “Best Defense in Football”), Manning just kept plugging away, and they had broken the Jets’ back by the end of the third quarter. The game never even seemed in peril for Indy. It’s really at the point where you have to think: If it’s within reach in the 2nd half, Indy is going to score a TD at least 75% of the time. With a defense that doesnt really “get stops” like New Orleans has… that number has to be even higher. Clearly, a 17 point lead isn’t enough to be able to sit back and protect, so either the Saints are going to have to just keep scoring… or have a huge lead?

Angle Ten: But could the Saints prevent a shootout by amassing a huge lead quickly with big plays…

This angle pretty aptly nails the Colts’ tendency to start slow and let teams jump out on them… as well as the Saints’ tendency to come out of the gate flying and have a 21 point lead before the game really gets started (see Arizona). With the aforementioned psychological/emotional advantages for Who Dat nation, doesn’t this seem even more likely? Can you not at least kinda envision sideline shots of a stunned Peyton Manning down 21-0 in the 1st quarter while belligerently drunk Saints fans give high fives to every single stranger in their section? I think it’s entirely possible that the Saints get a couple of big plays… a Colston 60 yard seam… maybe a turnover… maybe 1 3 and out…  maybe a little Reg’ Bush action followed by 20 Kardashian celebration clips… but what is the smallest half-time lead that the Saints would need to be favored for the whole game? 10? I’d still take the Colts… 14? probably still taking the Colts… 21? I’d have to be batshit crazy not to take the Saints… but Manning really does need that game to remember…

Add it all up: Angles One and Two came first for a reason… but I think that Indy is going to have to come from behind… and score a lot of points doing it. Manning gets his immortal game winning drive: 38-34 Colts.

Guess We’ll see…

Word,

Nick

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